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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.